Europe weighs doubling Ukraine aid if Trump cuts US funding

European diplomats are considering plans to double military aid to Ukraine if Donald Trump cuts off US support after taking office, while Ukrainian officials express confidence they can sustain their war effort through 2025 with already committed assistance, the Guardian reported on Saturday.

The conflict, which began with Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, has seen Europe provide €46bn in military aid compared to the US contribution of €65bn. The EU’s former foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell has advocated for expanding Ukraine’s domestic arms manufacturing capacity as a cost-effective strategy for maintaining the country’s defence capabilities.

Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko emphasised the country’s readiness for a “long marathon,” dismissing expectations of a swift end to hostilities. He confirmed Ukraine has secured sufficient funding and budgetary support to continue fighting throughout 2025, including plans to produce 30,000 long-range drones and 3,000 cruise missiles.

European officials remain confident about implementing a $50bn loan package for Ukraine, to be repaid from interest earned on frozen Russian assets, despite uncertainty over potential US withdrawal from the arrangement under Trump. The EU has indicated it could cover most of any shortfall should the US pull back its $20bn contribution.

However, some diplomats warn that doubling European military support could face political hurdles due to rising populist sentiment across the continent. Meanwhile, France and the UK are developing contingency plans for a non-NATO “coalition of the willing” to serve as peacekeepers in Ukraine should peace talks materialise.

Marchenko also highlighted changes in modern warfare tactics, noting that Western-supplied tanks have proven less effective than artillery due to drone vulnerability. Ukraine now faces approximately 3,000 enemy drones monthly, a tenfold increase since June, prompting increased requests for counter-drone capabilities.

Background

The Russian invasion of Ukraine marked an escalation of a conflict that began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and the establishment of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. The full-scale invasion in 2022 prompted unprecedented Western military and financial support for Kyiv, transforming into a conflict that has tested global alliances and reshaped European security architecture.

Western support has been crucial for Ukraine’s resistance, providing advanced weaponry, training, and financial assistance. However, the potential shift in US policy under a Trump presidency has raised concerns about the sustainability of this support structure and forced European allies to consider taking on a larger share of the burden.