2024 set to be hottest year on record, EU scientists say

The European Union’s space programme has declared it “virtually certain” that 2024 will be the hottest year on record, marking what scientists say is the first year to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.

Global temperatures over the past 12 months were 1.62C higher than the 1850-1900 average, when widespread fossil fuel use began, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

October 2024 was recorded as the second-warmest October in history, with temperatures 1.62C above pre-industrial levels.

“This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming climate change conference,” said Dr Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus.

The findings, based on comprehensive data from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations, come ahead of the Cop29 climate summit and follow the election of Donald Trump as US president, who has previously dismissed climate change as a “hoax”.

The report also highlighted concerning trends in sea ice extent, with Arctic ice reaching its fourth-lowest October level at 19 percent below average, whilst Antarctic ice hit its second-lowest October extent, 8 percent below average.

Scientists emphasise that whilst a single year above the 1.5C threshold does not mean long-term targets are missed, it signals increasing pressure on ecosystems and communities. The World Meteorological Organisation recently reported record levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases in 2023, with carbon dioxide concentrations rising faster than at any point in human history.

The impact of climate change was evident in recent extreme weather events, including devastating flash floods in Spain that claimed over 200 lives, the report noted.