Global youth myopia to soar to 740 million by 2050, study warns

A third of children and adolescents worldwide currently suffer from myopia, with cases expected to surge to over 740 million by 2050, according to a study published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology on Wednesday.

Researchers analysed data from 5.5 million young people across 50 countries, revealing a tripling in myopia rates between 1990 and 2023. The prevalence rose from 24% in 1990-2000 to 36% in 2020-2023, with adolescents showing the highest rates at 54% in recent years.

The study highlighted significant geographical disparities, with low- and middle-income countries experiencing higher myopia rates than their wealthier counterparts. East and South Asian populations saw the steepest increases, coinciding with rapid economic development.

“A correlation has been observed between the duration of education and the incidence of myopia,” the researchers noted, suggesting that early formal education in East Asia might be a contributing factor. Conversely, African populations showed lower prevalence, possibly due to later starts in formal education.

Gender differences were also apparent, with girls showing higher myopia rates, potentially due to earlier puberty onset and less time spent outdoors.

The COVID-19 pandemic may have exacerbated the trend post-2020, though researchers acknowledged limitations in their analysis due to variability in study designs and methodologies.

To combat the rising trend, experts emphasised the importance of increased physical activity and reduced screen time for children and adolescents.

The study projects that global myopia cases will reach 600 million by 2030, escalating to over 740 million by 2050, with higher prevalence expected among females and in the 13-19 age group.