Antibiotic-resistant infection deaths expected to reach 39 million by 2050

Deaths from microbial resistance are expected to steadily increase over the next few decades, with an increase of almost 70% by 2050 compared to 2022.

According to a study published in the journal “The Lancet,” it is estimated that by 2050, more than 39 million people worldwide could die from antibiotic-resistant infections.

This is the first global analysis of microbial resistance (AMR) trends, conducted as part of the “Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance” program. The study covers individuals of all ages in 204 countries and regions.

It was calculated that more than one million people were dying as a result of microbial resistance worldwide every year during the period 1990-2021. Deaths from AMR increased the most in five global regions: West Sub-Saharan Africa, Tropical Latin America, North America, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.

During the same period, deaths from AMR decreased by 50% in children under five years of age, a decrease that coincided with significant improvements in the provision of infection prevention and control measures among infants and young children, such as vaccination programs.

However, deaths increased by more than 80% in individuals aged 70 and over, due to the rapid aging of the population and the greater susceptibility of the elderly to infection. These trends are expected to continue in the coming decades.

Vital need for interventions

The study estimates that 1.91 million people could die as a direct result of AMR in 2050, an increase of almost 70% compared to 2022.

During the same period, the number of deaths in which AMR bacteria play a role is estimated to increase by almost 75%, from 4.71 million in 2021 to 8.22 million.

The estimates show that improved access to healthcare and antibiotics could save a total of 92 million lives between 2025 and 2050.

The researchers emphasise the vital need for interventions such as infection prevention, vaccination, minimisation of inappropriate antibiotic use, and research into new antibiotics to mitigate the number of deaths from AMR.

Finally, they note that the lack of data for some low- or middle-income regions highlights the need for improved data collection, which requires investments in infrastructure.