Extreme weather ‘could kill up to 152,000 a year’ in Europe by 2100

Extreme weather-related disasters could increase 50-fold and affect two-thirds of the Europe's population by the year 2100 and kill up to 152,000 people annually while heat waves will account for 99 percent of weather-related deaths, if nothing is done to curb the effects of climate change, a new study has found.

The European Commission-funded study warned that deaths in Europe caused by weather disasters would increase from 2,700 deaths a year between 1981 and 2010 to 151,500 deaths a year in the timeframe 2071 to 2100 as a direct result of hazards relating to extreme weather, with those living in southern Europe likely to be the hardest hit. The number is 50 times more deaths than reported now.

The study also projected that around two-thirds of Europeans will be exposed to extreme weather annually by the end of the century.

That translates to more than 350 million people per year. By contrast, on average around 25 million people per year were found to have been exposed to weather disasters between 1981 and 2010. 

Exposure included anything from death and disease to losing a home.

Experts said the findings were worrying but some warned the projections could be overestimated.

According to researchers Dr Giovanni Forzieri, PhD, Alessandro Cescatti, PhD, Filipe Batista e Silva, PhD, and Luc Feyen, PhD: 

We found that weather-related disasters could affect about two-thirds of the European population annually by the year 2100 (351 million people exposed per year [uncertainty range 126 million to 523 million] during the period 2071–100) compared with 5% during the reference period (1981–2010; 25 million people exposed per year).

If nothing is done to cut greenhouse gas emissions and to improve policies to reduce the impact against extreme weather events, the study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre says:

• Deaths caused by extreme weather could rise from 3,000 a year between 1981 and 2010 to 152,000 between 2071 and 2100
• Two in three people in Europe will be affected by disasters by 2100, against a rate of one in 20 at the start of the century
• There will be a substantial rise in deaths from coastal flooding, from six victims a year at the start of the century to 233 a year by the end of it

The research analysed the effects of the seven most dangerous types of weather-related events – heat waves, cold snaps, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms – in the 28 EU countries as well as Switzerland, Norway and Iceland.

The researchers continued: 

About 50 times the number of fatalities occurring annually during the reference period (3000 deaths) could occur by the year 2100 (152 000 deaths [80 500–239 800]).

Future effects show a prominent latitudinal gradient, increasing towards southern Europe, where the premature mortality rate due to weather extremes (about 700 annual fatalities per million inhabitants [482–957] during the period 2071–100 vs 11 during the reference period) could become the greatest environmental risk factor.

The projected changes are dominated by global warming (accounting for more than 90% of the rise in risk to human beings), mainly through a rise in the frequency of heatwaves (about 2700 heat-related fatalities per year during the reference period vs 151 500 [80 100–239 000] during the period 2071–100,) the researchers said.

The study is published in the Lancet Planetary Health journal